← HVN Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
Water GenbuTier 2
at HVN Store Championship @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1198–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
921
Q1 1179
Q3 1393
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
